BlackBerry QNX Record and Forecast Raise|$100 Million Truck Deal or 275 Million Cars?

A record quarter, but whose money?

BlackBerry raised its revenue forecast the same week its QNX car software unit won the biggest contract in its history. Yet the more than 100 million dollars tied to that contract is not revenue BlackBerry has booked. The customer is Coretura, a software venture founded by truck makers Daimler Truck and Volvo Group. It chose Alloy Kore, a vehicle operating system QNX built with the German firm Vector. Two days later, BlackBerry reported the best quarter in QNX's history. Chief financial officer Tim Foote credited that quarter to better-than-expected royalties, as vehicles with QNX software rolled off the line. QNX software is already in more than 275 million vehicles. One record rests on cars already coming off assembly lines. The other is a bet on what future trucks will pay for software in each vehicle. QNX revenue reached 80.3 million dollars in the quarter ended August 31. That was 27 per cent higher than a year earlier. BlackBerry had told investors to expect no more than 75 million dollars from QNX. The unit cleared its own ceiling by about 5.3 million dollars. One trade publication described the Coretura design win as central to the upgraded forecast. BlackBerry's own regulatory filing reads differently. It calls the 100 million dollar figure an estimate of future royalties, based on projected vehicle volumes and royalty rates. The beat came from royalties on vehicles being produced now. It was BlackBerry's sixth straight profitable quarter, after three years of losses.

Not all of the surprise was cars

QNX was not the only surprise. BlackBerry's licensing business, which collects payments for use of its intellectual property, brought in 22.1 million dollars. That was more than double the expected amount. A year earlier, it brought in 6.6 million. Total revenue rose by about 33.7 million dollars from a year earlier. Licensing alone accounted for roughly 46 per cent of that increase. Chief executive John Giamatteo cautioned analysts that licensing deals are typically one-time payments and unpredictable. He said BlackBerry typically expects about 24 million dollars a year from the unit. This single quarter delivered about 92 per cent of that. BlackBerry expects licensing to fall to about 6 million dollars next quarter. Its revenue forecast for that quarter tops out at 154 million dollars. That is below the 163.3 million just reported. That makes the full-year forecast the better test. BlackBerry now expects revenue of 616 to 636 million dollars. The earlier range was 594 to 621 million. At the midpoints, the total forecast rose by about 18.5 million dollars. The QNX forecast alone rose by about 16.5 million, to a range of 315 to 325 million. The secure communications unit, which sells to governments and enterprises, grew only 2 per cent in the quarter. BlackBerry lowered its revenue forecast for that unit, citing geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty. So licensing padded the quarter. But most of the higher outlook rests on one unit. QNX.

More software in each car

Giamatteo explained the growth in an interview with Reuters. He said: "We're supporting all the different domains of the car. That's one of the reasons why we're seeing some of the explosive growth." Those domains include digital cockpits, advanced driver assistance and body-control systems. Automakers using QNX include Audi, General Motors, Hyundai and Mercedes-Benz. BlackBerry says software-defined vehicles widen its reach in two ways. More vehicles can use QNX, and each one can carry more QNX software. Giamatteo said QNX booked more new contracts by revenue in the first half than in any prior full year. That is a long way from QNX's start at BlackBerry. The unit was acquired 16 years ago and tasked with the last operating system for the company's doomed smartphone business. According to an industry source cited by The Globe and Mail, QNX earns less than 10 dollars for each vehicle made. BlackBerry has never disclosed that figure publicly. Alloy Kore is BlackBerry's attempt to raise that number. The company has said the platform will more than triple the revenue QNX earns per vehicle. On the earnings call, management said the Coretura win showed a threefold increase in price per instance, compared with traditional operating system deployments. Market watchers had been waiting for Alloy Kore to prove it could win orders at all. So Coretura is more than a large contract. It is the first test of whether a customer will accept the higher price per vehicle.

Two clocks

Both sides of the deal described it in public. Giamatteo said: "The first Alloy Kore design win, the largest design win in QNX history, marks an important commercial milestone." Coretura chief executive Johan Lunden spoke from the buyer's side. He said: "We are building one foundation the industry can rely on." His point was that customers can then focus their engineering on their own applications. Neither statement says how many trucks will carry the software, or when. BlackBerry's filing says actual revenue will depend on production volumes. It could change if the customer program is modified or terminated. A Canadian research firm noted the announcement disclosed neither a contract value nor a schedule for revenue. The timing sits in how QNX gets paid. BNN Bloomberg's summary of its interview with Giamatteo says design wins can bring development and services revenue first. Per-vehicle royalties begin years later. Alloy Kore itself had not reached its official market release. QNX president John Wall said the Coretura deal came before a launch planned for later in 2026. Put the pieces together. The record quarter was paid by cars being built now. The record contract's royalties arrive only when Coretura's trucks are built. That is why a raised forecast and a 100 million dollar win in one week are not the same news. One shows the existing royalty base is growing. The other is an estimate of future revenue that can still change. That gap matters because of how much now depends on QNX. In the latest quarter, QNX made up about 49 per cent of total revenue. BetaKit reports that QNX accounts for just over half of both the next-quarter and full-year forecasts. QNX is also reaching beyond cars. Giamatteo said non-automotive uses already make up 20 per cent of the unit's revenue. He said Uber signed on as a QNX customer to build software for its robotaxis. He described potential contracts in robotics, medical devices and industrial equipment as well. In every case, a design win must still turn into royalties.

The next signature

BlackBerry has already set the next marker. QNX president John Wall said QNX expects to sign one more deal this year. Before the results, RBC Capital said investor sentiment would hinge partly on the timing of further Alloy Kore design wins. A second customer would show the higher price is not a one-off. Without one, the tripled revenue per vehicle remains a promise with a single test case. So the week that looked like one story was two. The raised forecast came from royalties on cars already in production, plus a licensing windfall expected to fade. The Coretura contract is a claim on future truck royalties, at a price BlackBerry says is roughly three times higher. The sign to watch is whether QNX announces the further deal Wall expects. If it does, shareholders counting on QNX as BlackBerry's next business gain a pattern, not a single contract. If it does not, the outlook rests on existing car royalties. And on licensing money the chief executive himself calls unpredictable.