Eldorado Gold Crushes First Ore at Skouries|Stock Up 9.8%, Power Still Off

The Crusher Started, But The Power Isn't On

Eldorado Gold shares climbed 9.8% as the company processed first ore through the crushing circuit at its Skouries copper-gold project in northern Greece. That single word, crushing, is being read by the market as proof the mine is finally becoming real.

But the plant that just crushed its first ore is not yet connected to the power grid. Eldorado is running the commissioning phase on temporary generators while it waits for the Greek power authority to sign off on final site energization.

The milestone the market is trading is construction progress. The milestone that actually turns Skouries into a producing asset is a regulatory inspection the company does not control. Those are two different events wearing the same headline.

Why This Bet Only Works If Gold Cooperates

Simplify the valuation case and it looks compelling. A two-stage discounted cash flow model puts Eldorado's fair value near 344 dollars a share against a market price of 30.46, implying the stock could be 85.8% undervalued. That model assumes free cash flow swings from roughly 47 million dollars negative today to 3.39 billion dollars by 2035, powered almost entirely by Skouries ramping into copper and gold production.

That model leans on gold prices staying elevated, and the market itself cannot agree on whether that holds. Comex gold rose 1.6% to 4,080.90 dollars an ounce on renewed bargain hunting, with ING's Ewa Manthey framing the move as fresh buying interest. StoneX's Rhona O'Connell disagrees, calling gold's technical picture decidedly bearish and warning a break higher would be a surprise.

The official-sector data cuts against the bullish case. Russia's central bank sold 43.5 tonnes of bullion in the first half of the year, its largest six-month sale in at least 25 years, pushing reserves to their lowest since February 2020. China, historically the largest physical buyer, is not filling that gap either. Wholesale demand sits near decade lows and local gold ETFs just posted record monthly outflows.

The Setup Versus The Trap

For a holder, the trigger that turns this run into a genuine re-rating is straightforward: final grid energization on schedule ahead of the company's own third-quarter first-concentrate target. If the Greek power authority signs off without delay, the generator workaround disappears and Skouries stops being a construction story and starts being a production one.

For a watcher, the same event cuts the other way if it slips. Any delay in that inspection stalls the ramp the discounted cash flow model is pricing in, and it would land at the same moment gold's technical picture is already being called bearish by StoneX. A confirmed break below the 4,000 dollar support level Comex gold has defended repeatedly would strip out the commodity tailwind the valuation case depends on.

The number that actually decides this is not today's 9.8% move or even the third-quarter concentrate target quoted in every headline. It is the specific date the Greek power authority completes final inspection and testing on the transmission towers. That single administrative event determines whether Skouries stays on schedule for full commercial production in the fourth quarter, and it is the checkpoint that resolves the gap between the stock's rally and the mine's actual readiness.