60bn Cursor Deal on 5bn Loss|SpaceX Hits 2.75 Trillion in 3 Days

Chapter 1: The Number That Cannot Be Explained

SpaceX shares rose 67% above their IPO price of $135 in three days of trading, briefly placing the company's market value at $2.97 trillion — above Microsoft. That number demands immediate attention: SpaceX generated $18.67 billion in revenue last year and posted a net loss of $4.94 billion, after absorbing the money-losing xAI division. The provisional answer to why the stock keeps climbing is not Musk's vision, not Starlink, not the Mars programme. The bottleneck is the float — SpaceX has the smallest free-float of any company at this valuation, and the next buyers are not discretionary. On the day shares surged past Amazon, SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock deal to acquire Anysphere, the company behind the AI coding tool Cursor. The deal is structured as an exchange of shares, meaning no cash leaves the company. What changes is the implied obligation: SpaceX's stock is now the currency, and it just issued $60 billion worth of it three days after its IPO. Cursor brings roughly $2.6 billion in annualised revenue and a product that competes directly with OpenAI and Anthropic in the AI coding market — a space where SpaceX's Grok model had demonstrably lagged. But the deal also confirms the thesis that SpaceX is no longer being valued as a rocket company. Investors are pricing it as a platform — Starlink, defence contracts, AI infrastructure, and now enterprise software — and they are doing so against a revenue base of $18.67 billion that does not yet price any of that future in. Swissquote Bank's senior analyst stated plainly: "This valuation makes absolutely no sense today. People are buying SpaceX in the expectation that others will buy it higher — that's speculation." Michael Burry, who shorted the 2008 housing market, has said he found "nothing" in SpaceX's IPO paperwork to justify $1 trillion, let alone $2 trillion. So why is the stock still going up? The answer lies not in conviction but in mechanics.

Chapter 2: The Forced Buyers and the Locked-Up Sellers

SpaceX is scheduled for fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, with FTSE Russell adding it on 26 June and MSCI on 29 June — nine days from now. Index inclusion means that every ETF and passive fund tracking those indices must buy SpaceX, regardless of valuation. This is not a decision; it is a mandate. On Tuesday alone, more than $9.1 billion worth of SpaceX shares changed hands — several times the combined trading volume of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple. Options also launched on Tuesday, with 540,000 contracts traded in the first hour — equivalent to Nvidia's typical options volume. When call options dominate, dealers hedge by buying shares, adding another structural buying layer that compounds the momentum. Zephirin Group noted the mechanism directly: "the combination of passive flows, momentum, and limited float" is driving upside beyond what historical index-addition moves would predict. This is the buried assumption the bulls are treating as settled: that passive demand is a floor. What they are not pricing is the selling schedule sitting directly above it. Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust holds a stake in SpaceX worth roughly £2.98 billion at the IPO price — and that stake now represents over 21% of its entire portfolio. Scottish Mortgage cannot sell a single share before August, when SpaceX reports Q2 earnings. At that point, it can release 20% of its holding — or 30% if SpaceX is still trading above $176 at the time. The stock is currently at $215, so the 30% tranche unlock is live. Scottish Mortgage has stated publicly that any lock-up would affect its "ability to manage position size." That is institutional language for: we will sell when we can. The holder, then, faces a structure where index flows prop the price through late June, Musk-driven momentum sustains it into July, and the first material supply hits in August — exactly when Q2 earnings arrive with $4.28 billion in Q1 losses as the prior quarter's baseline. For a watcher who has not yet entered: the index-flow window is the last moment of structurally supported momentum. Once FTSE Russell and MSCI complete their additions, the forced-buying mandate expires. What follows depends entirely on whether the earnings narrative — or the Cursor deal's Q3 regulatory close — replaces it. CFRA initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $115 price target, implying a 29% decline from the IPO close price. Musk's own $1 trillion revenue target for 2030 requires a 53-fold increase from last year's $18.67 billion — a projection with no comparable precedent. The counter-evidence does not break the read. It defines the risk structure around the same binary: index-mandated flows deliver a floor through 29 June; after that, the stock is priced on conviction that either the Cursor deal closes cleanly and Grok closes the gap on OpenAI, or the earnings narrative cracks before it can. The holder watches 29 June as the last session of mechanically supported buying. The watcher looking for entry asks one question: does the Cursor deal's Q3 regulatory close arrive before or after the Q2 earnings disappoint? That sequence determines whether $215 is a floor or a local high.