ASX Loses 4 Days Straight|Energy the Last Safe Floor
Iran's Energy Grip
The ASX 200 has now closed lower for four consecutive sessions — and the one sector keeping the index from a full collapse is the same one tied to the war that caused the selling. That is the contradiction sitting at the center of Australian markets this Friday.
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. That waterway carries roughly 20% of the world's oil and gas exports, and with US naval forces blockading Iranian ports and ordered to intercept vessels laying mines, there is no clear path to reopening. Brent crude has surged 17.6% this week alone to above US$106 per barrel. WTI crude is up 17.3%. European gas prices are up over 15%.
That repricing is not abstract for Australia. The energy index is the only major ASX sector in positive territory today, up 1.3%. Woodside Energy is up 1.9%. Ampol is up 2.1%. Viva Energy is up 2.3%. These gains are real — but they come at a cost that is spreading through the rest of the economy.
Barrenjoey analysts are now forecasting home-build inflation of 6%, driven by concrete suppliers absorbing escalating fuel costs, alongside timber, steel, and plastic pipes. The same oil shock lifting energy stocks is quietly repricing the cost of building a house. The second round of US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad is expected within days, but markets have stopped pricing in a quick resolution. Trump's Truth Social posts threatening naval action and the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports have complicated the diplomatic picture. Investors are not betting on peace — they are pricing in a prolonged disruption.
If the Strait reopens within weeks, energy stocks will give back most of these gains rapidly, and the inflation pressure on building materials eases before it feeds into CPI. If the blockade holds through May, Brent above US$110 becomes a genuine scenario, and the ASX's four-day losing streak extends into a broader de-rating of consumer and financial stocks as rate-cut expectations get pushed further out.
Gold's Structural Shift
While the energy shock is the headline, the quieter story on the ASX this week is what is happening inside the gold sector — and it tells a different story about where capital is actually moving.
Newmont reported its March quarter results overnight, and the numbers represent a structural step change, not a cyclical bounce. The company produced 1.5 million ounces of gold at an average realised price of US$2,944 per ounce. That price is not a forecast — it is what Newmont actually received for gold already sold. Free cash flow hit a record US$3.1 billion for a single quarter. Adjusted EBITDA came in at US$5.2 billion, nearly double the US$2.63 billion posted in Q1 2025. Net income reached US$3.2 billion.
The cash flow is now large enough that Newmont has approved an additional US$3 billion share buyback on top of an existing program — bringing total buyback capacity to US$6 billion. It also confirmed a quarterly dividend of US$0.25 per share. When a mining company generates this level of free cash at current gold prices and chooses to return it rather than invest it, the signal is that management sees the gold price as durable, not temporary.
Pilbara Minerals added another data point. The lithium miner reported a 61% increase in its realised spodumene price to US$1,867 per tonne, driving revenue up 52% quarter on quarter to $567 million. PLS shares are up 3.5% today. The company explicitly cited energy security concerns as a structural driver of lithium demand — a direct link back to the Hormuz disruption. Critical minerals priced in energy terms are being re-rated alongside oil.
Newmont's full-year guidance is unchanged at 5.6 million ounces, with production weighted to the second half. That means if gold holds near current levels, the second-half cash flow numbers could exceed the already record first quarter. The verification benchmark: watch Newmont's AISC guidance — currently US$1,650 per ounce — at the next quarterly update. If costs hold and gold stays above US$2,800, the buyback program accelerates and the stock re-rates higher. If gold pulls back below US$2,600, the cash flow picture changes quickly, and the buyback pace slows.
The Closing Signal
The thread connecting both stories is a single variable: how long does the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted. Oil above US$100 keeps energy stocks elevated, feeds into building cost inflation, delays RBA rate-cut timing, and simultaneously validates gold as a store of value in an inflationary shock. Every one of those consequences flows from the same source.
The tech sector is also flashing a warning that sits alongside the energy story. On Wall Street overnight, ServiceNow flagged slower subscription growth explicitly tied to the Middle East conflict. IBM maintained guidance but the stock fell. Microsoft is down approximately 4%. The iShares tech-software ETF dropped around 6%. Meta and Microsoft have both announced headcount reductions to fund AI investment — a cost rationalisation cycle that is compressing software multiples at exactly the moment oil is compressing consumer spending power.
The weight of the evidence points toward continued ASX underperformance in the near term, driven by oil-induced inflation pressure and tech multiple compression. That judgment holds as long as negotiations between the US and Iran remain stalled and Brent stays above US$100. The recovery scenario is specific: a credible ceasefire announcement or a confirmed reopening of Hormuz shipping lanes would reverse energy gains, ease building cost forecasts, and remove the inflation-delay logic from rate-cut pricing — which would sharply re-rate financials and consumer stocks within days. The ASX 200's four-day losing streak would likely snap within a single session on that news.
Watch the second round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad. If a framework emerges by end of April, the energy trade unwinds. If talks collapse again, the oil shock enters a fifth week — and the market's assessment of this as a short-term disruption becomes very hard to sustain.